Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
