Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.